[Ep 2] Customer Lens — Not All Customers Are Created Equal

Who Stays, Who Strays, and Why It Matters

Customers never announce they’re about to churn, or that they’re about to become your best advocates.

Dashboard 4: Customer Segments — Who’s Actually Showing Up

Here’s where the numbers start to turn into people. I broke the data down by loyalty tier, spending habits, and demographics — not just to see who’s driving revenue, but who might be quietly slipping away.

In 2024, the crown belonged to customers aged 45–54. No surprise there. The restaurant in this case study had its golden era in the 1960s as a drive-in — the kind of place that, if you grew up in BC back then, isn’t just food. It’s Friday nights in high school. First dates. Family dinners after church. Nostalgia, served on a plate.

But here’s the thing: their active spending window is getting shorter. Loyal? Yes. But slowly declining. So the question isn’t just “How do we keep them? ”It’s “Who’s the next generation of high-value customers before the gap appears?”

Key Metrics & Why They Matter:

Active customers (this month vs last)  Retention’s heartbeat. A dip here isn’t just fewer visits — it’s lost habits, lost loyalty, and eventually, lost revenue momentum.
Revenue per customer $1.7K in 2024. We can lift this in only three ways: get them to visit more often, spend more each time, or stay longer before drifting away. Which lever is easiest to pull?
Return customers (monthly)  Down 14% YoY. That’s not just a number; it’s a sign our relationship with some customers is weakening. Are our offers not compelling enough? Or is a competitor winning attention?
Return rate  86%. Strong in isolation, but when paired with the drop above, it suggests churn in the “sometimes regulars” — the mid-frequency diners who matter most to stable revenue.
New customers  Peaked in 2020, sloping down since 2021. Acquisition is droping — Why? Less marketing spend? Fewer referral drivers? Or simply less buzz?

Who’s Spending More — and How I Read It

First, the age story. Customers aged 45–54 are our heavy hitters — biggest lifetime revenue, highest average spend per visit. No surprise, really. They grew up with this brand in its heyday, so for them, a meal here is part dinner, part memory lane.

But there’s a quiet problem: their active spending window is shortening. If we don’t prepare for that, we’ll feel the gap later. The question becomes — who’s next?

The 35–44 and 25–34 groups are next in line for revenue. But here’s the twist: the 35–44 crowd spends more each visit than the 25–34 group. If we start moving them up the loyalty ladder now, we’re not just protecting the future — we’re building it.

Now, loyalty tiers within that 35–44 group tell another story. Most are either Gold or Bronze. Golds are our high-value customers. Bronzes? They spend less per visit but are the largest group. That’s the opportunity. If even a small slice of them started spending like Gold members, revenue could rise without finding a single new customer.

And then there’s the gender data. “Other” is the highest-spending group, followed by men, then women. But before we act on that, I have to ask: is “Other” a genuine segment — maybe LGBTQ+ customers — or just incomplete data? If it’s real, are we speaking to them directly in our marketing? And about men spending more — is that because they’re making the choice, or just picking up the check while women decide where to eat?

Retention isn’t just about keeping customers.

It’s about moving them.

Bronze to Silver. Silver to Gold.

Once-a-month to once-a-week.

Numbers alone don’t tell you the truth. It’s the patterns underneath — the “who” and “why” — that give you the real playbook.

Which is exactly where the RFM dashboard takes the lead.

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Dashboard 5: RFM Analysis — Turning Data into a Game Plan

If the Customer Segments dashboard told us who our customers are, RFM tells us how they behave.

RFM — Recency, Frequency, Monetary — might sound like something you’d only hear in an analytics meeting, but it’s really just a heat map for customer relationships:

• Recency → Who’s been in touch lately vs. who’s drifting away

• Frequency → Who comes back often vs. who’s just testing the waters

• Monetary → Who spends big vs. who’s here for the basics

  
  

Put it together, and you stop guessing. You can see exactly who to reward, who to re-engage, and who you might lose if you don’t act now.

The Surprise Player: At Risk Customers

This group stopped me in my tracks. On paper, they’re slipping — visits have slowed — but here’s the twist:

• Returning rate: still high (90%), barely below Champions (91%) and ahead of Loyal Customers (87%).

• Average spend: massive — $3.1K, second only to Champions at $3.3K.

  
  

These aren’t low-value drifters. They’re whales… just swimming by less often. That makes them the most dangerous kind of churn — the kind you don’t notice until it’s too late.

If I had a voice in marketing strategy, I’d treat them like VIPs: personalized “we miss you” offers, early-access perks, a reason to come back now, not “whenever they feel like it.” Even if 10% of them returned to Champion-level frequency, the revenue lift would be huge.

The Second Surprise: Others

Then there’s the Others group — the misfits who don’t slot neatly into any category.

Buried here were customers whose spending patterns looked almost identical to Loyal Customers — around $2.4K average spend — but who never came back.

Their visit frequency (35 visits) beat the Promising group, but their recency was way off.

Why? Was it a one-off celebration? Did something in the experience sour them? Or did we simply never follow up?

This is low-hanging fruit. They’ve already proven they can spend big — the only missing link is reactivation. A single well-timed offer could turn a one-time $200 dinner into a $2K lifetime value.

Key Segments & What To Do About Them

• Champions — Your superfans. High spend, high loyalty,  visited recently. Don’t let them get bored — surprise them with early access, secret perks, or VIP moments that make them think, “They know me.”

• Loyal Customers — Steady but not top spenders. A smart upsell, a tempting bundle, or a members-only deal could push them into Champion.

• Promising — Recent, decent spend, not yet frequent, haven’t made it a habit. Nurture them now and you could lock in years of Loyal Customers.

• New Customers — Their first visit was just days or weeks ago. First impressions matter — follow up fast so visit #1 isn’t their last.

• At Risk — High-value past behavior, now drifting. They’re worth too much to lose quietly. Send the “we miss you” note, drop the personalized offer — whatever it takes to get them back before they slide into Lost.

• Hibernating — Rare visits, low spend. Sometimes they’re worth waking up, sometimes they’re not. Choose wisely if budget’s better spent elsewhere.

• Lost — Low value, long gone. Only chase with low-cost reactivation plays.

• Others — The wildcards. Big spenders who don’t fit the pattern. Something about their behavior is unusual — dig in, find out why, then design the comeback play.

  
  

Why RFM Changes the Game

Here’s the thing about averages: they lie. If you treat every customer the same, you’ll waste money on people who don’t need a push — and completely miss the ones who do.

That’s the beauty of RFM — it’ doesn’t deal in averages. It deals in urgency. It tells you who matters most, right now:

• Reward Champions — make them feel special before they start looking elsewhere.

• Push Loyal Customers upward — give them a reason to spend a little more and move into Champion status.

• Pull At Risk back in — the big spender who hasn’t been in for months? Invite them back while they still remember you.

• Reactivate Others — the group who threw that huge birthday here last year? Remind them what made it unforgettable before they become permanently “Lost.”

  
  

This dashboard wasn’t just another visual — it was a shortlist of customers who could shift the business with the smallest, smartest moves.

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Knowing your best customers is one thing. But how do campaigns actually shift their behavior? The answer lies in [Ep.3] Campaign Lens — matching each RFM group with campaigns designed for their behavior. Because when you know exactly who you’re talking to, you can stop shouting at everyone… and start speaking directly to the people who’ll move the needle.

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💡 Part of my Reading Between the Bars Series, where I reveal the stories your business data won’t tell on its own.

The Episode:

• Ep.1 — Executive Lens

  • Dashboard 1: Executive Summary

  • Dashboard 2: Products

  • Dashboard 3: Location

• Ep.2 — Customer Lens

  • Dashboard 4: Customers

  • Dashboard 5: RFM

• Ep.3 — Campaign Lens

  • Dashboard 6: Campaign Performance

  • Dashboard 7-10: Ad Campaigns